Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 0.811636 0.944347 1.091440 1.266506 1.469152 1.696326 1.970327
2025-02-02 0.629005 0.816100 1.046323 1.350189 1.740566 2.225176 2.872629
2025-02-09 0.517251 0.724907 1.000011 1.390583 1.930484 2.650347 3.683427
2025-02-16 0.435762 0.650412 0.952431 1.407454 2.075017 3.018162 4.452377
2025-02-23 0.371705 0.585978 0.903612 1.407411 2.185527 3.341150 5.188354
2025-03-02 0.319267 0.528648 0.853908 1.394136 2.267798 3.624507 5.891857
2025-03-09 0.280078 0.485062 0.817402 1.393099 2.363979 3.934091 6.666435
2025-03-16 0.239164 0.431985 0.757354 1.343560 2.371576 4.098121 7.217996
2025-03-23 0.228083 0.428139 0.778292 1.432221 2.620680 4.686669 8.550248
2025-03-30 0.199225 0.388161 0.730748 1.393133 2.639134 4.878274 9.206309
2025-04-06 0.173801 0.350877 0.682964 1.346620 2.636592 5.029060 9.800866
2025-04-13 0.152706 0.318948 0.640919 1.304993 2.636752 5.182107 10.412822
2025-04-20 0.141204 0.305090 0.632844 1.330420 2.773519 5.615275 11.630888
2025-04-27 0.137036 0.305918 0.654262 1.418426 3.047229 6.348009 13.537125
2025-05-04 0.128781 0.296797 0.653944 1.460834 3.231431 6.920967 15.182095
2025-05-11 0.119256 0.283483 0.642928 1.478544 3.364556 7.402077 16.687508
2025-05-18 0.109403 0.267993 0.625073 1.478499 3.457964 7.807605 18.072971
2025-05-25 0.099640 0.251335 0.602453 1.464563 3.517945 8.145954 19.346258
2025-06-01 0.091794 0.238207 0.586274 1.463476 3.607057 8.558146 20.834425
2025-06-08 0.081669 0.217992 0.550782 1.411472 3.568849 8.674165 21.640419
2025-06-15 0.080831 0.221422 0.573106 1.504542 3.894368 9.677009 24.690310
2025-06-22 0.072837 0.204935 0.543788 1.463511 3.880679 9.864950 25.757477
2025-06-29 0.065310 0.188656 0.512973 1.414685 3.841054 9.984472 26.665598